Some time back at a book launch in Delhi, a scribe noncommittally remarked that any author who writes good about India cannot be a good author.
I guess people in Pakistan couldn't have agreed more to it.
I realize what I am going to write may not go down well or may go down only too well - it might fall flat, but any contrary opinion backed by a reasonably good argument(or lack thereof) would be most welcome.
Anybody with even a remote eye on current affairs would not have failed to notice the current surge in Indo-Pak amity graph. Suddenly there is talk of resuming cricketing ties, opening the respective blue skies, couple of terrorists offices were shut down in PoK, Guns have gone silent in Siachen, spate of CBMs have been announced, to mention just a few. What does all this signify, that the good times are back? Probably now there is even chance of that ever lasting peace between the two countries?
Sadly No:
Though it is tough to say how long the current lull will last but my bet is, some time till after the SAARC summit, which is being held in Islamabad next year. India has agreed to participate and will be represented by its prime minister, no less.
Reason for the Balmy season:
Popular pariahs of the season. For one, lately Islamabad has been getting reams of nasty press in the west. A certain first world prez may be doling out grants to them, but the Western media is vehemently against the dictator. Everybody and his brother knows where the Taliban are hiding and how they even got there. (Pakistan army airlifted most of the Taliban high command to safety at the height of American campaign in Afghanistan.). Then Parvez & Co. got refused(again) from getting re admitted into the Commonwealth. Within the diplomatic circles everybody likes to keep them at double arm distance.
Even in the UN recently, when Islamabad's foreign minister tried to compare the Palestinian cause with the Kashmir one, the Arabs went into an overdrive to undo the damage caused by the errant minister. Suffice to say there were lot of red faces in the Pakistani mission that day.
(I can gloat on and on, but I think I have made my point)
They happen to be everybody's' favorite punching bag and it serves them right.
The Indians are in for a Shock:
Kashmir is and will remain the crux issue. The Pakistani army would never let go of it. It remains their sole justification to be the most potent establishment in the country. A sort of its raison d'être. And no matter how much headway both countries make, in terms of trade, sports, diplomacy, culture and rest of the hogwash baggage, we will still end at square one, with the trademark we-got-stabbed-in-the-back routine. Unless That prime issue is tackled headlong.
So is there light at the end of the tunnel? - yeah, But it's that of an oncoming train.
Unless something earth shattering happens in the next coupla years, both the nations are in for some slugging out. Here is the way I see it. (did I mean that something 'earth shattering' will not be the end result of this slugging?)
Best case Scenario:
Let us for a hypothetical scenario assume that the Pakistani establishment wants to create just an illusion of India - bashing, so as to get an excuse to tower in their own country. For it is the rule of their land that they implicitly desire and which gives them kicks. Rest of the things can go to hell. Even in such a case the reverse engineered (boomerang) ire of the mullahs and madrasa bred youth would create living hell for both the countries. The way States trained and provided arms to the Mujahideens to fight against the evil communist soviet (seen Rambo - III?). Then one day they themselves had to face the brunt. (A bad analogy would be - When a stone drops in the puddle, whosoever near gets soiled).
Worst Case Scenario:
Kashmir actually belongs to Pakistan; if not rather an independent country.
Not only is the case very strong (they even get the benefit of a precedence), but as far as I have been able to piece up, even the Kashmiris want so.
Lets revisit history. How the state of Hyderabad came to being part of India. The state of Hyderabad was still under the rule of Nizam when India got independence. The irony was that the ruler - Nizam, was a muslim but majority of the it's citizens were Hindus. The Nizam, knowing pretty well which side his bread was buttered wanted Hyderabad to become a part of Pakistan(a la East Pakistan), if at all.
UltimatelySardar Patel and the 'Popular Mandate' prevailed. From the security context - The fact that Hyderabad was bang in the middle of the country(well almost), it would have been sucidal to allow Nizam have his way.
Now in the case of Kashmir it was opposite. Majority in the state was of Muslims but the ruler was a Hindu. When the Pakistani tribesmen and army regulars took to trespassing in Kashmir, it was still independent territory then, the king(Hari Singh) got scared and immediately rang up Pt. Nehru for aid. Nehru off course realised he had the king by his ba##s proceeded to extract maximum benefit from this event, and Kashmir inevitably became part of India.
Note: In the case of Hyderabad our policy went for a complete summersault.
So to set the record straight should India hand over Kashmir and amicably sort out the matter, once and for all?
Possibly. With a pre condition that measures would be constituted and eventually both the countries will be unified once again. Germany and Hong Kong showed it was possible, so it's not something really out of the world that we are talking about. Once Kashmir is solved, ...and they all lived happily ever after.
Naturally the ensuing peace and economic prosperity in both the countries would help in no small measure in attaining the unification goal.
What is More likely To Happen:
Practically speaking, seeing Kashmir slip so easily from the Indian grasp, the event would probably wake up the sleeping giants of Khalistan and likes.(Not to mention create new ones overnight). Tomorrow every new separatist group will start asking for state autonomy and nothing short of it.
So now it's not only Kashmir which is gone but also aspersions will be cast on the future of other states. We might even send a signal, albeit involuntarily that rest are up for grabs.
A new Perspective! - For a moment one can be forgiven to think that even this is preferable, that the country will become more like Europe (small states, more developed), but dude, they had NATO to provide the security umbrella. In our case, probably all the eastern states would be the first to go down. Devoured by the ever hungry dragon with expansionists designs - CHINA. So again.
Hope Floats:
At this juncture we can only hope for all pressures (implicit + explicit), which are making Pakistan toe a straight line, to perpetually keep exerting. Hopefully soon sense would prevail and it would dawn on both the sides that way to progress lies casting aside the unwanted baggage of historical blunders(on both side) and work upon new, healthy progressive relations.
Even if I strain my optimism, all this sounds like an over dose of wishful thinking.
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Maybe this is one thing for which even Google doesn't have any answers.
